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Article information
2023 , Volume 28, ¹ 4, p.22-34
Lepikhin A.M., Leshchenko V.V., Makhutov N.A.
Problems and possibilities for developing the risk concept of technical systems
The article gives a brief analysis for development of the concepts for risk analysis of accidents in technical systems. The new interpretation of the risk of technical systems is proposed, including both losses from accidents and losses from violations of the working condition and based on the concept of minimizing the cost of the life cycle. The problems of risk assessment in the proposed formulation are considered. The main attention is paid to the prospects of risk assessments using Monte Carlo methods due to the limited capabilities of analytical methods for risk assessment. The capabilities of risk assessments based on statistical data on accidents and malfunctions are considered. The assessments of the risk of accidents and malfunctions of onshore and offshore underwater pipeline systems are carried out. It is shown that the proposed approach gives higher risk estimates compared to the traditional approach
Keywords: technical systems, working capacity, accidental, risk, model, loss, pipeline
Author(s):
Lepikhin Anatolii Mikhaylovich
Dr. , Professor
Position: General Scientist
Office: Federal research center of information and computational technologies,NTC NefteGazDiagnostica
Address: 630090, Russia, Novosibirsk, Academician M.A. Lavrentiev Avenue 6
Phone Office: (985) 195-33-22
E-mail: krasn@ict.nsc.ru
SPIN-code: 3072-6366Leshchenko Victor Victorovich
PhD.
Position: General director
Office: NTC NefteGazDiagnostica LLC
Address: 105066, Russia, Moscow, Niznyaya Krasnoselskaya street, 40/14, b.4
Phone Office: (916) 691-42-69
E-mail: tom66@inbox.ru
Makhutov Nikolay Andreevich
Dr. , Professor
Position: General Scientist
Office: Blagonravov Mechanical Engineering Research Institute RAS
Address: 101990, Russia, Moscow, 4 Maly Kharitonyevsky Pereulok
Phone Office: (985) 780-39-07
E-mail: kei51@mail.ru
SPIN-code: 4499-0720
Bibliography link:
Lepikhin A.M., Leshchenko V.V., Makhutov N.A. Problems and possibilities for developing the risk concept of technical systems // Computational technologies. 2023. V. 28. ¹ 4. P. 22-34
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